NFL Odds and Picks: Blazing Carolina Panthers Visit New Orleans Saints
Saturday, December 31, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
With a chance for a first-round playoff bye technically still on the table, the New Orleans Saints plan to play their starters when they host the Carolina Panthers in the regular-season finale Sunday. Saints coach Sean Payton said Wednesday that the Saints are “playing it full speed ahead,” presumably meaning QB Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints' stars will start.
The Saints can still earn the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye, but they need some help from San Francisco. New Orleans will clinch the No. 2 seed with a win and a 49ers loss or tie, or a tie and a 49ers loss. The Saints have won the past three meetings, but two of them have gone down to the wire, including a 30-27 road win Oct. 9 in which Brees threw a 6-yard touchdown pass to Pierre Thomas with 50 seconds left.
The last time the Saints entered in such a playoff-certain spot, they rested Brees for the finale against Carolina, and ultimately went on to win Super Bowl XLIV in Miami.
Complicating matters statistically is the fact that Brees leads New England's Tom Brady by only 190 yards for the league's top spot in yardage. With the Patriots still fighting for home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs, it's pretty likely Brady plays a good chunk of Sunday's game against Buffalo.
Brees's backup, third-year man Chase Daniel, has thrown just five NFL passes.
Meanwhile, though it'll miss the playoffs for a third straight year, Carolina is excited.
The Panthers struck gold with their No. 1 overall pick in last April's draft, selecting Heisman winner Cam Newton and subsequently jumping from two victories in 2010 to six this season as last year's Heisman Trophy recipient began rewriting his own section of the league record book.
Newton completed 12-of-17 passes for 171 yards and three touchdowns in the Panthers' 48-16 win against Tampa Bay last week, surpassing Peyton Manning's previous record for passing yards by a rookie. He enters the final game with 3,893 passing yards and another 674 on the ground.
Additionally, Newton has accounted for 34 of Carolina's 45 offensive touchdowns. His 14 rushing scores are also a quarterback record for a single season.
Carolina holds a slight 17-16 edge in the all-time series between these teams, but New Orleans has come out on top in each of the last three matchups in the set and handed the Panthers a 30-27 loss in Charlotte during Week 5 of this campaign.
The Saints also took both 2010 meetings with Carolina, edging the Panthers by a 16-14 count in the Superdome in Week 4 and following up with a 34-3 rout road later in the year. Carolina last topped the Saints via a 23-10 verdict at Bank of America Stadium in 2009 and has lost two straight times at the Superdome since a 33-31 win there in 2008.
Payton has compiled a 5-6 record against Carolina during his five-year tenure with the Saints, while Ron Rivera lost his first and only previous encounter with both New Orleans and Payton as a head man with this past October's result.
Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, January 1, 2012. Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Last Week's results:
- Carolina Panthers (-7) beats visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48-16.
- New Orleans Saints (-6.5) beats visiting Atlanta Falcons 45-16.
Last week's ATS:
- Carolina Panthers (6-9) wins and covers
- New Orleans Saints (12-3) wins and covers.
NFL Football Odds: Saints -8, O/U 54.5
Playoff Picture:
- Carolina Panthers: Eliminated (week 14)
- New Orleans Saints: New Orleans can clinch a first-round bye with a win and a 49ers loss in Week 17. COMMENT: With the division wrapped up and the single-season passing yardage record in Drew Brees' possession, the Saints turn their attention to a chance at the NFC's No. 2 seed. But they'll need help. While the 49ers have a seemingly easy win lined up against St. Louis, the Saints could have their hands full with Carolina, which has won two straight in convincing fashion behind Newton.
New Orleans has won seven straight to lock up the NFC South title, but it still might not be enough to avoid playing in the first round of the playoffs. That's about the only thing left for the Saints to play for this week, as Brees already has broken Dan Marino's NFL record with 5,087 passing yards.
Unable to control their own fate, the Saints might be content to keep their offensive machine running smoothly. They have a team-record 6,857 total yards. Brees has at least one touchdown pass in 42 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history (Johnny Unitas, 47), and has at least 20 completions in an NFL-record 35 straight games.
Will he or won't he? Clearly, how much Brees actually plays will have a significant impact on the look of the game. If the controls are left to Daniel, much of the precision and pace of the New Orleans offense figures to be at least temporarily lost.
While Brees has racked up yardage in New Orleans, Newton has changed a culture in Carolina. His swagger was evident in the first few weeks even when wins were scarce, and his production down the stretch has helped the Panthers to victory in four of the last five weeks.
Though the records are quite different, the Panthers' actually have a credible matchup with New Orleans in terms of strength vs. strength. And if the Saints choose to rest starters on defense as well, Newton and his explosive friends could benefit.
Saints TE Jimmy Graham needs four catches to become the first tight end in NFL history with 95 catches, 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns in a season.
Panthers WR Steve Smith is third in the NFC with 1,308 receiving yards and needs 92 to reach 1,400 for the third time in his career. Smith leads the NFL with 27 catches of 20 or more yards.
Saints WR Marques Colston has 998 receiving yards and needs two yards to reach 1,000 for a team-record fifth season.
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
The Saints are an established power. The Panthers are a team on the rise. But in Week 17, when a handful of players -- specifically Brees -- may not play very much, the scales tip a bit. Expect Carolina to be charged up to make an end-of-season statement against a team with more significant January conquests on its mind.
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NFL Football Pick: Take Panthers.
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atlanta falcons - cam newton - carolina panthers - chase daniel - drew brees - jimmy graham - marques colston - mercedes-benz superdome - new orleans saints - peyton manning
